Newbury, William Hill Handicap Hurdle (08/02/2025)
Navajo Indy 14/1, 1pt each-way (4 places)
The weights are out for the richest handicap hurdle in the country and it looks like being another uber competitive renewal. I expect the weights to bump up a bit here as it's unlikely that top-weight Burdett Road will run and I also doubt that Brentford Hope or Gordon Elliott's Kala Conti will take up their engagements. The prospect of being top weight may put off Jeremy Scott from running Golden Ace too so there's every chance that Iberico Lord could end up with the big burden. With this in mind it may pay to look a bit down the weights. Secret Squirrel jumps out of the page and will have his share of supporters to follow up his win from Windsor last time out but there must be a worry that the track that day really suited him and the last few times he's run on more demanding tracks he's not quite seen it out. An even bigger worry could be the possibility of pretty sodden ground. It's not stopped raining for the past few days and with plenty of tracks being abandoned for waterlogging and plenty of rain about over the next week or so I think it's quite likely that conditions for Newbury in 12 days time could be testing. It's also worth noting that the race has not been won by a horse older than 7 since the 9 year old Geos won for Nicky Henderson in 2004. In recent year's it's also been won by quite unexposed types with plenty of novices claiming the race, in fact 9 of the last 15 winners have been novices. I quite fancy a novice here to keep up that trend in the shape of Tom Symond's 6 year old Navajo Indy. This son of Nathaniel has had 2 wins and a second from his 3 runs at Newbury. His first go was in a bumper, which he won and then built on that when finishing second to the now 137 rated Be Aware here over hurdles in January of 2024. On his latest visit to the Berkshire track he won a decent renewal of the Gerry Fielden off an 8 pound lower mark. Considering the bare form, his new mark of 128 really shouldn't be beyond him, especially considering his age and profile. He finished 4th at Windsor last time out but it's worth noting that he was last going into the final bend and nothing finished better. He looked to really dislike that tight track (also underperformed round the bends of Fontwell in the past) but nonetheless the run showed he's in good heart and will hopefully have put him spot on for this race which by all accounts has been the plan since his victory here in November. He looked to relish the track that day as the long straight really suits this strong stayer and more importantly he really enjoys soft ground, which I think he is likely to get. He's consistent, tough, at the right end of the handicap and fits a lot of the trends. He's 14/1 now and I can see those odds contracting throughout the next week if the rain keeps up.
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