I haven't managed to knock down the door at the Aintree meeting just yet but Favour And Fortune and Celtic Dino ran great races to both finish third on Thursday. Tomorrow is the big day and I reckon there's a decent priced winner to be found somewhere.
13:20, William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle
Timmy Tuesday 9/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)
I'm really keen to oppose the horses who ran in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last month as it looked like a gruelling race. Instead I like the chances of Gordon Elliott's improving 7 year old Timmy Tuesday. He is probably the most unexposed runner in here. He is still a novice and this will be his first run at the trip. The selection notably finished second to the classy Final Demand in a maiden hurdle earlier in the season but has won twice easily since in small affairs at Ayr and Down Royal. This trip could unlock key potential though as it's worth noting he was in front in a 3 mile point before running out late on back on his first start.
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13:55, Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle
No Bet
This is a really nice renewal but it's hard not to like the chances of Lulamba who should relish this trip and gets the weight for age allowance from all other runners. Still, he had a hard race in the Triumph last month and I couldn't take odds-on about him.
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14:30, William Hill Handicap Chase
Cruz Control 9/1, 1pt each-way (4 places)
This isn't as hard a race to win as it used to be and with likely favourite Myretown ruled out, it loses a lot of it's lustre. To that extent I think there's a decent chance that Cruz Control can win this for the second year in a row. It's fair to say that things haven't gone to plan for Tom Lacey's horse this season but it means he arrives here just 3 pounds above the mark he won off last year and the ground has really come right for him. I don't think this will take any more winning than last year's race and he should get a nice ride up front.
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15:05, Ivy Liverpool Hurdle
Strong Leader 11/2, 1.5pts each-way (3 places)
Like Cruz Control I think last year's winner of this race can go in again. Teahupoo can be taken on after being defeated fair and square at Cheltenham last month and it's worth noting that he usually needs time between his races to be seen to best effect and this ground will be lively enough for him. The ground can't be good enough for Olly Murphy's stable star Strong Leader though and I can't get the memory of how easily he won this race last year out of my mind. He's been disappointing since winning at Newbury in November but he's been running on the wrong track all winter and I'm sure this will have been the big plan all along.
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16:00, Randox Grand National Handicap Chase
Hewick 12/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Hyland 20/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Beauport 25/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
In year's gone by it wouldn't have been unknown for me to back 10 in the Grand National. But I had more of a love affair for the race back then. I first attended Aintree for the 2010 running of the Grand National and was spoilt as it was the year A P McCoy finally landed the big race. My first winner came the following year when Ballabriggs came home in front on what I remember to be a very hot Spring day. In those days the race was full of old favourites, and old rogues who I couldn't help but feel obliged to have a bet on for sentimental reasons. It was also a fiendish race to find the winner of. The handicap chase has changed markedly over the past 10 years however. A huge prize fund and easier fences has led to the big owners running more and more of their highly handicapped types and that means that the Irish pack out the field keeping out our old favourites and rogues. It's also become more of a simple test of class and stamina than jumping and temperament meaning a horse like Red Rum could never win today's race. It's worth noting that only 1 of the past 7 winners have been bigger than 14/1 so it's becoming an easier race to back the winner of. Anyway, my main fancy for the race this year is Hewick. As I said earlier you need to be a classy horse to win these days and being an ex-King George winner, Shark Hanlon's stable star has that in abundance. He also has stamina, as he showed when winning the Bet365 Gold Cup and Durham National back in the day. The ground has come right for him and I think he's got a huge chance. I also think that a couple of British trained horses could run well at nice prices. Hyland comes into this race as a novice but one who is in great form. He's looked a strong stayer this season and I think he's open to any amount of improvement now stepped up in trip. He too will enjoy the ground and I thought he ran a huge National Trial at Kempton in February on his last start. And finally Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this before and he runs last year's Midlands National winner and this year's Berkshire National winner Beauport. This 9 year old may be quite high in the weights these days because of those victories but he is a sound jumper who has bottomless stamina. If he gets into a rhythm he should go well.
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17:00, Rosconn Group Maghull Novices' Chase
No Bet
Whoever thought it was a good idea to run this race after the Grand National on the Saturday needs to take a good hard look at themselves. It's a stupid idea and it's a poor renewal again this year.
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17:35, Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race
Mossy Fen Road 5/1, 2pts win
This looks an open race but I was a huge fan of what Mossy Fen Road did at Wetherby in February and I would have backed Harry Derham's 5 year old had he run at Cheltenham last month. He's come here fresh instead and I think he's the bet in this field.
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