I was at Epsom today for the Ladies Day and the ground didn't seem to bad and after shunning the far rail at the start of the afternoon, the jockeys were more inclined to race against it by the latter races indicating that the track may have dried out a little. A lot of Saturday's action will depend on how much rain falls between now and racing, with plenty forecast that could turn the tide in favour of those with more reserves of stamina. I'll be back in Surrey tomorrow for the Derby and it's a cracking day in store.
13:00, Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Royal Dress 9/2, 2pts each-way (4 places with bet365)
Skellet draws the eye here for powerful connections after contesting very classy races last year (albeit struggling) before getting her head in front against her elders at Sandown in September. She hasn't run since then however, and hasn't always been the most straight on seasonal debut so preference is for last year's 3rd placed mare Royal Dress. James Tate's runner was desperately unlucky 12 months ago as she had no room for most of the home straight before finishing with plenty of running left. She made amends to win at the Curragh later in the year and that's form that reads well in the context of this race. She made a pleasing comeback over a trip too far at York last month and she will have come on for that I'm sure. She has everything in her favour here though and hopefully can go 2 places better than last year.
///
13:35, Betfred Diomed Stakes
Royal Playwright 8/1, 1pt win
To my mind there is not much between Persica and Docklands. Persica looked like a horse to follow last year when impressing in a handicap victory at the track 12 months ago and again at Sandown after that. He built on last year's form to run out an impressive winner of the Earl of Sefton back in April but finished last of 8 runners in the Lockinge last time out, albeit that was a red hot Group 1. He has course form but I'm not sure a step back to a mile at this track will be exactly what he wants. We know he will handle the track which is far from a certainty for the likeable Docklands, who runs particularly well at Ascot's straight track. Harry Eustaces horse does bring the best form into the race but this track hasn't lend itself to hold up horses and I fancy taking them both on at the prices with Andrew Balding's 3 year old Royal Playwright. I saw this colt finish 3rd in a strong renewal of the Solario at Sandown last year. He backed that up with a good effort in a soft ground Royal Lodge stakes in September. He's bred to improve with age and has had excuses for his 2 defeats this spring. If he can build on that then he looks value against the top end of the market.
///
14:10, Betfred 3yo 'Dash' Handicap
Ruby's Profit 3/1, 2pts win
This looks a perfect bit of placing by connections for speedy filly Ruby's Profit. The daughter of Profitable won well at Goodwood last time out which augers well for this downhill dash and she has been drawn up against the stands rail which is the place to be in the sprint races at Epsom. She's been well found in the market but this isn't a strong renewal and should take plenty of catching.
///
14:45, Aston Martin 'Dash' Handicap
Existent 11/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)
This year's renewal of the famous 'Dash' is about as hard a race to find the winner of as you will see all year. It's a proper minefield but I'll take a chance on the likeable 7 year old Existent. It's worth noting that he hasn't actually won a race since February 2022 which is a long time ago but he's in as good a form as he's been since then having finished 2nd on each of his last 4 runs. He's shown he goes well at this track and has been drawn well in stall 14. He's racing with a feather weight and is in good fettle as shown when just run out of it at Goodwood 19 days ago after hitting the front too soon. He's a hostage to fortune but nothing is likely to be finishing better and with 5 places on offer he looks a nice each-way play here.
///
15:30, Betfred Derby
Pride Of Arras 9/2, 3pts win
This will be the 13th Derby that I have been at Epsom to see since my first pilgrimage in 2011 to see Pour Moi win for France. Since that day I have only missed Wings Of Eagles (2017 - on holiday in Japan) and Serpentine (2020 - Covid year). I have seen all sorts of winners in that time and a few truly exceptional horses, probably none so more than the imperious Golden Horn bolting up in 2015. I would go on to see him win the Arc that Autumn. I've learnt that a horse needs something a little bit extra to win the Blue Ribband an cement himself in equine folklore. I can't quite put my finger on it, but normal horses don't win a Derby - they need that special bit of class and temperament. 2025's rock-solid runner is the 11/4 favourite Delacroix for the imperious combination of Ryan Moore and Aidan O'Brien. This colt should stay this trip, and has shown that a bit of dig in the ground is of little worry and he has won his 2 trials very easily. However, it's worth noting that a winner of those trials hasn't gone on to Epsom glory since the legendary Galileo and he spent all winter long behind his stablemate in the betting for this. Delacroix is clearly a very talented horse but I just question if he has the X factor needed for this. The Lion In Winter has already been mentioned here and he spent the cold months sitting pretty at the head of the market for this until his injury issues resurfaced and he was rerouted to the Dante in May, a race in which he finished an underwhelming 6th. He ran well that day and it's worth noting that both previous winners of the Derby were disappointing in their previous races but one suspects if the Sea The Stars colt had been showing enough at home since then that Ryan Moore would be in the saddle. 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court undoubtedly brings the best form into this race as he won what looked like a strong renewal of the first Classic of the season and is by the same sire as last year's Derby hero City Of Troy. There has to be some question marks regarding his stamina however, as he has shown real speed over a mile in 2 runs this year and didn't exactly power through the line at Newmarket. He's been drawn well in stall 7 and has bundles of ability but the recent rain will have done his cause no favour. The 2000 Guineas has been a starting point for many Derby winners in recent years but so too has the premier Derby trial that is York's Dante Stakes, named after Yorkshire's last winner of the race back in 1945. 5 brilliant colts have landed the Dante-Derby double so far this century: North Light (2004), Motivator (2005), Authorized (2007), Golden Horn (2015) and Desert Crown (2023) whilst 2010 winner Workforce finished 2nd in that year's Dante before claiming Epsom glory (smashed the track record that day, which still stands). Last year's winner, Economics, didn't run for the Blue Ribband but this year's victor does and that is Pride Of Arras for recent Arc winning trainer-jockey combination of Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan. This son of New Bay claimed the Dante on only his second start, which is some feat in itself. He looked in trouble half way up the run-in when behind a wall of horses but he showed real quality to quicken clear when he found daylight and ran out a ready winner. I can stress enough how impressive that was to win the nation's premier Derby trial on not only just his second start but on his first run of the season as well. I'd expect him to make natural progress since then and he's been the subject of glowing reports since. Pride Of Arras is by French Derby winner and Arc-placed New Bay, a sire who's progeny often show a handling for soft conditions and on his dam-side, Pride Of Arras is related to horses who stayed very well - including a few hurdle winners. This colt has been given a tricky draw in stall 16 but given this is a big field of 19, I'd rather be drawn wider than in very low stalls and face the possibility of being boxed in. There are more experienced horses in this race for sure, but none are as unexposed and Pride Of Arras may just have that something special.
No comments:
Post a Comment