Would you believe it, there's rain forecast overnight. After one of the driest starts to November in recent years, the sky now seems to have decided to make up for lost time. Storm Bert battered the country and left many communities in turmoil but not so Newcastle it seems, with the clerk of the course today announcing that he intends to keep watering in the build up to Saturday's big meeting. Scarcely believable. Hereford on the other hand, where the current official going is good to soft, have called a precautionary inspection for tomorrow morning with up to 15mm of rain due in the early hours. Market Rasen do not have that worry but with the state of their turf already soft, it makes betting the night before on these fixtures a little tricky. Murky waters ahead, both literally and metaphorically but perhaps there's value to be found still.
Hereford
14:00, Alpha Aggregates Handicap Chase
Airtothethrone 14/1 (each-way 4 places)
This is a 3 mile, 1 furlong handicap chase that may well depend on exactly how much the ground deteriorates between now and flag fall. Rightly so, the eye is drawn to the Ben Pauling trained Harry's Hope who will be seeking the 4 timer. The 6 year old mare is clearly thriving although it's worth noting that her 3 victories last month came on official ground descriptions of: good (good-firm in places), good (good-firm in places), and good-soft (good in places). Regardless of how much rain Hereford get, it's likely this will be the softer than those. She now also finds herself a whopping 20 pounds higher in the handicap than when starting her hat-trick. Ultra Beat and Faded Fantasy have similar profiles with this being the second chase run for both of them. They also ran similar races on their recent chase debuts, running on well when the game was up to grab second. Ultra Beat was struggling from a long way out on very bad ground and the suspicion is he merely ran past very tired horses (he nabbed a 50/1, 10 year old for second who's form going into that race was pulled up, 8th, fell, last, pulled up). I'm not that surprised the handicapper left him untouched. All those at the front end of the market have enough questions to answer so it may be worth chancing Airtothethrone at 14/1 for an each-way play. Unlike many of these, he has plenty of chasing experience but is still only 8. He arrives here just 2 pounds above his highest winning mark. It's worth bearing in mind that this time last year he looked set to win at Lingfield off a 2 pound higher mark before coming to grief at the 3rd last. He was given a break after that, and wind surgery. He ran OK in his next 2 starts afterwards before bouncing back to form at Taunton in April. He was beaten half a length that day by Jesse Lightfoot who has won again since and was last seen finishing 3rd at Cheltenham's Open Meeting. The 3rd in that race has also won since and is now rated 115. Airtothethrone races here off 104. He ran a pleasing race on seasonal debut at Chepstow last month (tired late on, looking in need of the run) and connections have perhaps been waiting for slightly easier ground since. Tim Vaughan's string is also in better form now with 2 of his last 5 runners winning and another coming second (beaten a neck). Alan Johns is back in the saddle today and hopefully all is set for a good run.
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Market Rasen
14:25, Pertempts Network Bud Booth Mares' Chase
Marsh Wren 7/2
What a cracking little race this is for a Wednesday afternoon. This Listed Chase was won last year by Galia Des Lixeaux who goes in the Coral Gold Cup on Saturday (not without a chance) and is packed with quality mares again this year. We have a Cheltenham Festival winner (Sine Nomine), a Grade 1 winner (Apple Away), an Irish Listed Race winner (Marsh Wren) and a previous winner of this race (Fantastic Lady). At the weights any one of 3 could go off favourite although at the moment it looks as though the market is siding with Apple Away. Fantastic Lady is rated the highest in the field (149) but must give weight away all round: 2 pounds to Apple Away (141), 4 pounds to Marsh Wren (145) and 6 pounds to La Renommee (142), Sacre Coeur (132) and Sine Nomine (133). It should be a good race. It's worth noting that when Fantastic Lady won this race in 2022 she was rated 137 and herself in receipt of 4 pounds from the runner up Zambella (140). She faces 3 opponents today with higher official marks than Zambella and she has to concede weight to all of them. She did win the Oaksey Chase at Sandown well to drag her rating up 7 pounds from 142 but that was quite unexpected and the big hitters didn't fire in that race; the Henderson stable is still not quite firing on all cylinders at the moment either. Apple Away herself has a bit to do on these terms and hasn't quite gone on over fences so at the prices I'd rather take a chance on Stuart Edmunds' Marsh Wren. The stable has had 3 winners and 3 seconds from 18 runners in November and Marsh Wren's record when fresh reads: 1st, 6th, 1st, 1st, 1st. This is a decent race with good prize money so I'm sure she'll bit fit enough and with regular jockey Ciaran Gething's unavailable, the jockey booking of Sean Bowen is a real confidence booster. Her run in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham was outstanding (got within 6 lengths of Grade 1 winner Dinoblue) and I hope she can kick on this season.
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