13:00, EBF Stallions 'National Hunt' Novices Hurdle
Thistle Be The One 4/1 (each-way 3 places)
I started with the likely favourite, Miami Magic here who is currently around the 7/4 mark. This 5 year old didn't achieve a lot before racing under rules but has since finished 2nd in a fair Aintree bumper but stepped up again to hack up in a Maiden Hurdle at Fakenham 26 days ago. He skipped round there (good ground) in the style of a speedy horse. Now the form of that race has taken some knocks and it was only a 5 runner affair. It's worth bearing in mind that he's now going right handed and encountering the softest ground yet after the battering the nation has taken from Storm Bert. He's got to give a 6 pound penalty away here so I'd rather look elsewhere. Groovy Blue was very game in a Fontwell bumper but again, that form looks quite poor and he strikes me as a longer term prospect. Marengo Bay is the unknown quantity in the field but the Henderson stable hasn't exactly been demolishing all before them and this is a hard race to make your debut in. Thistle Be The One caused a surprise when defying an SP of 40/1 to win a bumper at this course in February. The runner up has yet to be seen however the 3rd placed horse that day has since had finishing positions of 1st, 2nd, 1st from 3 runs since. He ran a cracker from the front again at Ayr in April when only being denied on the line by one of Gordon Elliott's. He still had runners from Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton in behind. He's got a lovely attitude and will handle these conditions. The stable is going well and although we have to take his hurdling on trust, at the prices he looks the play especially in the each-way market.
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15:10, racingtv.com Handicap Chase
Es Perfecto 10/3
I'm a big fan of Bourbali and backed him when he won here last month. However, he is up 4 pounds and 2 furlongs in trip. The Edgar Wallace is a horse who likes to go from the front so could take on Bourbali for the lead and set this up for something off the pace. That brings in Es Perfecto. Alan King's horses have been going along at a fair pace for November and it must sting not to have got a chase win into the lightly raced 9 year old yet. That could change here though as Es Perfecto now finds himself 3 pounds lower than when 2nd to Ginny's Destiny at Cheltenham on last season's debut. He's also 2 pounds lower than when 3rd over this course and distance on Boxing Day last December. He finished behind Blow Your Wad and Outlaw Peter that day and they are now officially rated 145 and 144 respectively. He also had Kotmask in behind him that day (now rated 130). Es Perfecto races here off a mark of 121. He looks the best handicapped horse in the race and if he's fully tuned up he should be going close.
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Both of the day's selections will be ridden by Gavin Sheehan so here's hoping the 2023 Coral Gold Cup winning jockey can start his week off with a double.
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