12:40, Thames Materials Novices' Handicap Hurdle
Just Lucky Sivola 11/4
The Nicholls' trained 5 year old is very lightly raced and looks to still be learning on the job. He looks a thorough stayer and has been running well over shorter trips than this which turned into tactical affairs that won't have suited him. He'll improve now that his stamina is drawn out and looks the horse to beat here.
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13:15, Howden Handicap Chase
Scarface 10/3
Not a lot has gone right for Scarface so far this season but it means that he comes into this off a mark of 130 which is only 2 pounds higher than when victorious in the Sussex Champion Chase in the Spring. This trip is ideal for him and with plenty of likely pace on up front he should have the set up he needs. It's a strong wide open race but he's the play for me.
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13:50, Howden Graduation Chase
Jungle Boogie 11/4
This is one of the lightest raced 10 year olds you will see. He has obviously had his problems but Henry de Bromhead's charge has run well on all of his career starts including when 6th in the Gold Cup when last seen. This trip and track should be ideal given he won at Tramore in January over a similar distance and will probably be sent to the front and could prove hard to pass.
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14:25, Howden Long Walk Hurdle
The Wallpark 5/1
Shoot First 11/2
Strong Leader looks set to go off a short priced favourite but I just haven't been convinced about him yet. His price is all about that performance at Aintree in April when he won the Liverpool Hurdle. My worry is that it didn't look a strong renewal of that race and Olly Murphy's stable star has a great record at that course. His form elsewhere wouldn't be strong enough to see him be such a short price here so I'll take him on with 2 improving Irish handicappers. The Wallpark has been bought by J P and is quickly pitched into a Grade 1. He's been improving quickly though over extended trips and it looks as though the bigger the stamina test, the better he will be. He will get that here over the stiff 3 miles at Ascot. Shoot First won a demanding handicap at Haydock last month (race in which Crambo finished 3rd in last year before winning the Long Walk) and is totally unexposed. He could be anything and is worth having in calculations. I'll play them both against the favourite.
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15:00, Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase
The Changing Man 10/3
Victtorino is hugely respected going for back to back victories in this race but he's a short price considering not a lot has gone right since this day last year. The Changing Man pulled a mile clear with the winner in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time and should cope with being put up 5 pounds for that as he still races here off 10 stone 8 pounds. With Two For Gold and Trelawne in this, the race should be a proper stamina test which will suit Joe Tizzard's up and coming chaser. He has a big one in him.
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15:35, Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle
Be Aware 11/2 each-way (4 places)
This horse deserves to break his run of seconds and it could come here in a race the trainer has won twice before. Dan Skelton's 5 year old has come from a long way back to be second at Sandown in March and then again at Cheltenham in a strong renewal of the Greatwood Hurdle. He is improving all the time and the stiff nature of this track should really suit him together with the recent rain. This has been the target since the Greatwood and I expect him to go very close again.
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