Very little national hunt action on this week and none on Thursday. Lingfield's afternoon card looks tricky so I have taken aim at Chelmsford's evening meeting.
18:30, It's Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap
Alex The Great 11/2, 1pt each-way (4 places with Betfair Sportsbook, 3 places generally)
Carlton is a warm order here to win for the third time on the bounce. He's up 2 pounds for his latest win but will effectively race from a 5 pound higher mark as his jockey is not claiming the 3 pounds he was last time out. He could be vulnerable at short odds so I'll take a chance on Alex The Great who has been mightily consistent since joining current connections. This will be his second run back since wind surgery and is will be ridden by William Carson for the first time having usually been piloted by a claimer. Add that together with a good draw in stall 1 and there's plenty to like at the odds. He should put in a good effort.
///
19:00, Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap
Specified 6/1 (with Bet365), 1pt each way (4 places generally)
This looks a hot handicap with a full field of 14 runners declared. The Outlaw is 6/4 at the time of writing and it's easy to see why as he finished 2nd last time out on handicap debut and runs from the same mark here. However, he raced from the front end that day and is drawn in stall 13 here so he may have to be ridden differently. I'll chance Marco Botti's Specified against him at the odds. He is still a maiden after 7 starts however, this will be his first start over a mile having shaped consistently like this sort of trip will be the making of him. He finished 6th last time out however, he was continually hampered when trying to make a run and finished without a question having been asked so a line could be put through that. That isn't the first time he's had a poor run through. This mark looks exploitable when you consider that the last time he had a clear run came at this course in September when he finished a running on 2nd over 6 furlongs. That was off a pound higher mark than he races off here. He will be coming out of stall 4 so is unlikely to get caught wide and Lingfield is often seen as a hold up horse's track. Specified will be ridden for the first time by Benoit de la Sayette.
No comments:
Post a Comment