Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Thursday

 A real nearly day on Wednesday for me as although The New Lion and Stumptown both went in, Impose Toi and Unexpected Party both finishing second was a tough pill to swallow. Thursday's card looks very hard indeed so I have gone hunting value. Here we go again!

13:20, Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle

Sixandahalf 11/4, 3pts win

This is one of the most open renewals of this races to be run. It's a huge field and loads are completely unexposed. I like the chances of both the Paul Nicholls mares Jubilee Alpha and Just A Rose but I do think they may struggle against the Irish here. Galileo Dame must have a great shout in receipt of plenty of weight but I just cannot get away from Gavin Cromwell's Sixandahalf. This 5 year old developed into a really decent flat horse last summer in a campaign that culminated in a 3rd place finish in the Irish Cesarewitch. Her jumps debut last time out was impressive in that she dashed away from her rivals after the last to win by a widening 12 lengths. She jumped like a pro and I think she can go on to take very high rank in this sphere over the next few years. 

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14:00, Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase

Firefox 6/1, 1.5pts win
Pic Roc 11/1, 1.5pts each-way (5 places)

This is the first year in which this race has been turned into a handicap and I think it was the right decision and this is a proper punting race. I like 2 in this. Firefox looks to be the class horse in this race. He ran very well in all of the top novice hurdles last Spring and won convincingly on chasing debut in the Autumn. He's been running well to be placed at graded level since then on bad ground and I expect him to really enjoy this drop in class and the better ground. At bigger prices Ben Pauling's Pic Roc appeals. He ran a mighty race to finish second in a big field handicap hurdle at Sandown this time last year and has run very respectably so far in his chasing career. He came to grief on debut but put that behind him to finish second at Exeter over a slightly shorter trip and then again at Newbury over a slightly longer trip. This distance could be the goldilocks distance for him. He attempted to give 6 pounds to Issam at Exeter on bad ground so it was no bad effort to be beaten by a neck and last time out at Newbury he looked all over the winner coming to the last before being outstayed by Lord Of Thunder who was also in receipt of 6 pounds. He's in here off a nice racing weight and I think he should be going very close. 

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14:40, Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

D Art D Art 7/1, 1.5pts win
Karl Des Tourelles 18/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Super Survivor 33/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)

This is a proper fiendish race and as such I have had to pick out 3 runners which is against my usual MO. D Art D Art looks a right handicap snip here. He came from a mile back to finish 3rd at Navan over a trip slightly shorter than this before finishing 2nd in his trial at Carlisle. He looked all over the winner that day before tiring up the hill on bad ground. That was no bad effort and with his claimer taking 5 pounds off he looks extremely well weighted here. At bigger prices I like Karl Des Tourelles. Although he hasn't added to his debut win yet, he looked like a horse going places when 2nd in his trial at Punchestown in November. That is to date his only go over this trip and I fancy he's got plenty more improvement to come, let's not forget that he was 2nd in a Grade 2 last spring and has been kept fresh for this since a run over an inadequate trip last time out. And lastly I couldn't forgo a bet on Super Survivor at big odds. He hasn't looked back since sent back hurdling by connections at the start of the season. He is a real strong stayer who should be running on well here when others have cried enough. He's won his last 2 starts in decent style and still finds himself running off a nice weight. He looks a good each-way bet.

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15:20, Ryanair Chase

Il Est Francais 11/4, 3pts win

Put your seatbelt on - this is going to be wild! French superstar Il Est Francais finally makes his long awaited Cheltenham appearance. He looked a real chasing superstar when bolting up in the 2023 Kauto Star over 3 miles at Kempton and had the King George over that course and distance sewn up turning in over Christmas before being run down after the last by Banbridge. Take the winner out of that race and the French galloper would have run out a convincing winner of that great race and would surely be lining up in Friday's Gold Cup. I expect James Reveley to gun it from the get go and he will take some stopping over this shorter trip. I can see him being many lengths clear coming down the hill and although Willie Mullins' Fact To File is greatly respected, I just think he could be left with too much to do to real in the big French hope. 

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16:00, Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

Lucky Place 15/2, 1pt each-way (4 places)

Given how the week has gone, I feel we must take on Teahupoo here. I was keen on The Wallpark but his price has really contracted in recent days and he is likely to be left with a lot to do turning in. Instead I fancy Lucky Place to finally land a championship race this week for Nicky Henderson. This 6 year old finished 4th in last year's Coral Cup at a time when the stable's horses were under a cloud and he hasn't looked back since. He looked progressive when winning the Ascot Hurdle in November before putting in a career best performance to win the Relkeel here on New Year's Day from subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road and recently crowned Champion Hurdle victor Golden Ace. He wasn't stopping at the line that day and he is the most unexposed horse in the race. He could be anything still and is the value at the current prices. 

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16:40, TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase

Masaccio 10/1, 1.5pts each-way (5 places)
Personal Ambition 20/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)

This is very difficult and although the novice Jagwar must have a great chance, I fancy a couple of other novices. Alan King's Masaccio is now 6 pounds better off with Jagwar than when they met on Trial's Day and I fancy that he can get his own back here on a sounder surface in a bigger field. Masaccio has plenty of experience in big fields and should really enjoy the better ground conditions here. His form when second to The Jukebox Man in November is probably the best on offer here and he should be going close. At bigger odds, Personal Ambition could run well. He hasn't managed to get his head in front over fences yet but has been running well in classy races and looked set to win at Ascot before blundering at the final fence. He defeated this year's Arkle winner over 2 mile 2 furlongs at Kelso last year and this will be his first go over this trip, which could unlock further improvement. He ran 4th off top weight in a decent race at Newbury in November and he will carry a lot less weight on his back here. 

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17:20, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase

Johhnywho 13/2, 2pts win

I don't really like this race but Jonjo O'Neill's Johhnywho could make a mockery of this on his first attempt at this trip on handicap debut. He has top amateur jockey Dereck O'Connor in the saddle and I fancy that if he gets into a nice rhythm that he could come there swinging off the home bend.