It is Scottish Grand National day at Ayr but I will be at Newbury for what looks to be a cracking days action headlined by premier Classic trials, the Fred Darling and the Greenham.
Newbury
15:12, OLBG Spring Cup Handicap
Metal Merchant 6/1, 1.5pts each-way (4 places)
Jack Channon's 5 year old won this race last year (albeit on the straight track, run on the round course this year - don't ask me why) and returns 12 months on off a 6 pound higher mark. I don't think that is insurmountable and the stable is in hot form with 2 winners from 5 runners in April. This has surely been the aim all winter long and I thought he shaped well in defeat multiple times last year in races that didn't suit him. This quick ground and long straight is what he wants and I expect him to go close as this does not look anywhere near as strong a renewal as last Spring.
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Ayr
13:43, CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase
Pic Roc 5/1, 1pt each-way (3 places)
Nothing went right for Pen Pauling's horse at Cheltenham last month and he comes here 3 pounds better off with Lord Of Thunder than when beaten by a length and a half at Newbury in the winter. Pic Roc came alive in the Spring last year when second in 2 big field handicap hurdles and he looks the best handicapped horse in this race. He should enjoy the ground as he ran well on it over hurdles last year and I expect this trip is what he wants.
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14:15, Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle
Kabral Du Mathan 10/3 3pts win
I am convinced that Paul Nicholls' 5 year old is way ahead of his handicap mark of 139. I thought it was a huge effort to finish second in a hard handicap hurdle at Ascot at the back end of 2024 and followed that up by finishing 2nd at Windsor. He would not have enjoyed the track or ground that day but still put in a massive run. He's been kept fresh here whereas most of the opposition ran at Cheltenham last month and I think that will have a big factor on this race. Nicholls hasn't hid away how much he thinks of his lad and I think he'll win this.
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15:35, Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Surrey Quest 11/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Toby Lawe's runner finished 2nd in this race last year and was pretty unlucky not to win it. He's 6 pounds higher a year on but he's had a very light campaign and conditions will be right for him again today. He's still only 8 years old so should be coming into his prime and I'm not convinced this is as tough a race as last year. He ran a great race to be 3rd in the Edinburgh National in February. He just raced a bit lazily that day and so he's got the cheek-pieces back on here which will be a huge help. I'm expecting him to go close.
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