I will be at Ascot tomorrow for the King George, a race that I have seen every year since 2011 apart from the covid year when Enable won her third. Tomorrow looks like a cracking card.
13:10, British EBF Crocker Bulteel 'Confined' Maiden Stakes
No bet
An interesting little maiden opens the card. The last 4 winners have all already had a run and New Monarch fared best of the in the race this year that already have racecourse experience when finishing 2nd at Newbury. I'm not sure that was the strongest race however. Wechaad was well held at Leicester but is seemingly well thought off as he heads the market as I write whereas Godolphin's Words Of Truth finished 8th in what was a red hot maiden at the same course; winner won the Chesham next time out. He's been gelding but Buick sticks with him ahead of unraced stablemate Harbor Lock who is a half brother to the decent Dream Castle. Jane Chapple-Hyam's runner Dark Shore cost 420,000gns and must be of interest too. A race to watch and take note.
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13:40, Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes
Sukanya 8/1, 1pt each-way (4 places with bet365)
This looks like a really decent renewal of the Princess Margaret Stakes. There is plenty of decent form on show here. We have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from the Empress run at Newmarket last month and although that looks better form now that the 5th placed filly has come out and won the Super Sprint, this looks a tougher race than that. Staya will have her supporters after winning the Dragon Stakes at Sandown last time out but 6 furlongs on this stiff track against decent opposition could stretch her a little. Fitzella was a game 4th in the Albany at the Royal Meeting and should run well but I wonder if other fillies are catching her up now whilst Flowerhead brings the best form to the table having finished 2nd to True Love in the Queen Mary. She came from a long way back that day to shape as though this step up in trip is in the calling but she was 100/1 that day and she never looked like winning at any stage. Daneh Of Dandy is 1 from 1 having won nicely at Ripon but more interest is given to the other unbeaten runner in the race, Sukanya. Jack Channon's Havana Grey filly was fairly unfancied at Newbury on debut 32 days ago, sent off at 16/1. Not a lot went right for her in the run as she was repeatedly denied a clear run and snatched up but she couldn't have been more professional and found loads for pressure when sighting daylight. That looked like a fair maiden and she was value for much more than the winning distance of 1 length suggests. This is a big step up in grade but it's notable that connections pitch her in the group level straight off the bat and this race has been won by fillies having their second starts 3 times since 2011.
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14:20, Longines Valiant Stakes
Pina Sonata 13/2, 1pt each-way (4 places with bet365)
Another up to scratch renewal on the afternoon. The Valiant Stakes was won last year by subsequent Group 1 winner Friendly Soul. While it's impossible to tell if any of these will go on to victory at the highest level, it looks a decent enough race for the grade and it will take plenty of winning. Honours are pretty even in recent years between the classic generation and their elders. Royal Dress brings in the best recent form of the older runners after hacking up at Listed level at Pontefract last time out. She looked good that day but she was entitled to win on the ratings and this is tougher. It's also worrying that she was disappointing on her only run over course and distance. The 3 year olds will probably hold sway here. The market is headed by Ralph Beckett's filly Chantilly Lace. She brings Group 1 form to the table having finished 5th in both the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes. Although a creditable effort last time out over this course and distance, it was worrying how little she found up the home straight having come from off a fast pace. She's a big girl who won on heavy ground on debut last year and may need an easier surface and more time to be seen to best effect. She's short enough in the market on what she's shown. Cajole ran well in the Coral Distaff last time out when finishing 2nd to a very good Juddmonte filly but she is now looking a tad exposed. American Gal, Bermuda Longtail and Glittering Surf all bring in decent form from the spring but need to bounce back to form from similar types of disappointments. A chance is therefore taken on James Fanshawe's progressive filly, Pina Sonata. The daughter of Pinatubo built on her debut promise at Newmarket last year and hacked up at Wolverhampton in what was an above average maiden for the track (3 subsequent winners in behind and a yawning gap of 11 lengths between 2nd and 3rd). She built on that again to hose up under a penalty at Leicester. She did plenty wrong that day but still quickened clear late on in the stykeof a nice filly. She's completely unexposed and is clearly well thought off. She could be the value pick here.
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15:00, Moet & Chandon International Handicap
ANTE-POST Fresh 40/1, 0.5pts each-way (4 places)
Qazaq 12/1, 1pt win
Yorkshire 14/1, 1pt win
The big handicap of the afternoon looks set to be a belter once again. It's not worth trying to guess the draw really and none of the action that proceeds this will give much of an indication of where you want to be. The last 2 winners have been drawn 1 and 24, take from that what you will. I put up Fresh earlier in the week at 40/1 and am happy to see his odds contract now to about a general 16/1 shot. He still holds claims. Array would be of interest if he bounced back to form but is increasingly looking frustrating. Northern Express won this last year and is weighted to go well again so is respected, whilst Golden Mind must have a chance on Epsom form but must shrug off a poor run in the Wokingham. Akkadian Thunder must have a favourites chance given how well he runs at the track but their is a hint that the handicapper is catching up. Alto is well in here and will have his followers after narrowly missing out in the Bunbury Cup earlier this month. He's not one to set your watch by. Instead at bigger prices, Qazaq and Yorkshire make some appeal. Roger Varian's Qazaq won his first 3 races, all on the all weather, and looked like a decent horse in the making. He's a well made son of Kingman but seemed to get a bit lost at Newcastle earlier this year when making his challenge up the centre of the track. He was given a length break of 176 days before making his reappearance at Newmarket 30 days ago. He was well fancied that day but was bumped by a rival coming out of the stalls and never really settled. Despite that, and some tender handling by the jockey, he finished well to finish a close up 6th. This track will suit better and I'm sure he'll strip fitter for the run. A mark of 92 could look lenient in time given his profile. Yorkshire is a bit more exposed for the Ed Bethell yard. This 5 year old has a decent strike rate however having won 6 of his 18 races. Quick ground and 7 furlongs seem to suit him well and I thought he ran a cracker at the Royal Meeting on his first run from a break to finish 6th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes despite switching a few times and ending up well off the near side rail which was fancied all day. He'll come on for that.
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15:35, Betfred Handicap
Bullet Point 9/2, 2pts win
A 17 runner handicap on the straight course at Ascot is always a fiendish proposition for a punter but it may be that the favourite here is a group horse masquerading as a handicapper. William Haggas's Bullet Point went into the Royal Hunt Cup having won his past 3 races, bounding 23 pounds up the handicap in the process. Despite being drawn on the wrong side he finished 2nd in the race to My Cloud who was in receipt of 2 pounds. This is easier and the draw in stall 9 today looks more favourable. The burden of 9 stone 12 pounds is hefty but the son of Blue Point is upwardly mobile and you get the sense that connections fancy he's better than this.
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16:10, King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Jan Brueghel 15/8, 4pts win
This will be the 14th King George I have witnessed. It all started for me in 2011 when Nathaniel downed the Arc winner Workforce in a race that was marred by the fatal injury sustained by Rewilding. In 2012 I saw perhaps the best race I have ever seen when Germany's Arc winner Danedream chinned Nathaniel on the line in a race for the ages. In 2013 Germany were at it again when Novelist under an inspired Johnny Murtagh destroyed the field and the track record at the same time. Injury curtailed his career and we never got to see him on the stage again. In 2014 we saw another outstanding performance, this time from Oaks winner Taghrooda. In receipt of lumps of weight John Gosden's filly sprinted away to win easily under Paul Hanagan. She would go on to finish 3rd in the Arc. To this day, she's still the strongest 3 year old filly I've ever seen. Postponed won a thrilling renewal in 2015 and went on to win a Juddmonte International the year after. In 2016 globetrotter Highland Reel had his biggest win in the UK under a masterclass of a ride from Ryan Moore. 2017 saw Enable defy Ulyssses and emulate Taghrooda by winning the King George after taking the Oaks. Poets Word downed stablemate Crystal Ocean in 2018 in a terrific encounter. He was an underestimated horse who was given a cracking ride by James Doyle on the day. Enable was back in 2019 to extend her winning sequence before going on to bring up the hattrick in 2020. Adayar became the first Derby winner since Galileo to claim the race in the same season in 2021 and is still to this day not given the credit he deserves due to an injury plagued career. He now stands in Japan. Pyledriver pulled off a win for the underdog in 2022 before Hukum defied his injury problems to out-battle Westover in a battle for the ages. And last year, Goliath sprung a surprise to hack up under Cristophe Soumillion. 4 of those winners were from the Classic generation, 3 of them English Classic winners already but it is disappointing that the age group wont be represented this year. Nonetheless, we have a cracking race in store. Rebel's Romance is a favourite of the sport and you can set your watch by him. This year's race will probably set up better for him than last year when he weakened up the run in but at the age of 7 you feel he has it all to do against younger improving types. Kalpana bolted up here on Champions Day on bad ground but has shown that wasn't a fluke by putting up 2 solid showings in defeat so far this year. The last day she was outbattled by Whirl but that was still some effort giving away weight. She must have a chance but may be outbattled again by stronger types. Calandagan and Jan Breughel gave us a thrilling end to the Coronation Cup at Epsom last month and are back again for round 2. The French gelding has won at Group 1 level since and looked good in the process. This is harder though and it is worrying that the Aga Khan's runner doesn't seem to enjoy a battle and this race looks sure to set up for a tussle. Preference again is for last year's St Leger winner Jan Breughel to come out on top. Hukum and Pyledriver both contested the St Leger before taking this race and the Ballydoyle colt can follow in their footsteps. This race seems to suit a staying type these days and with a pacemaker deployed to make sure there are no hiding places it could be that the big striding son of Galileo is too hard to pass.
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16:45, Me2 Club Handicap
Criminal 6/1, 2pts each-way (3 places)
Richard Hughes must be riding the crest of a wave after his July Cup win earlier this month. He hasn't managed a winner since but the runners continue to go well enough and I fancy his runner here as one of the bets of the day. Criminal, a 3 year old son of Sea The Moon, has been pulled out of a few entries lately to keep me guessing as to where he will turn up but I reckon connections know he's well handicapped and are keen to win a nice race on handicap debut. It doesn't get much better than winning a race on King George day. The gelding looks fairly weighted off a mark of 80 now stepping up in trip, which will suit on breeding. He has shown decent form on the all weather (beaten by Cajole and Nahraan 2 starts back at Wolverhampton) which always reads well at Ascot and his run at Chester is better than it looks considering he was green enough. William Buick rides and that is enough for me.
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17:15, Whispering Angel Handicap
Aramram 10/3, 3pts win
This is not the strongest 5 furlong handicap run at Ascot and another top weight could be the answer. Aramram is high in the weights now but he's given the impression that he could cut it at Group level and I don't see this drop in trip as causing too many issues. It's the easiest race he's contested for a while and Ryan Moore rides.
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