Ascot - Saturday 1st November

I will be at Ascot on Saturday for what is a proper cracking card. The winter starts here!

12:55, Grundon Waste Management Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Byzantium 4/1, 2pts win

A long winded name for the opener but it's a nice competitive affair to get things off. John Barbour won yesterday at Wetherby and will be of interest if turned out again but it seems unlikely. At The Oche comes into this race after scrambling home at 1/5 at Ffos Las but the race did turn into a bit of a sprint over 2 miles and he shapes as though this longer trip will suit. Seems well handicapped on the form of finishing 2nd to one at Newton Abbott who has subsequently run well at Cheltenham. His jumping leaves a lot to be desired however and that could leave him vulnerable in handicap company. Akimos got his act together at Ffos Las in the Spring and now goes handicapping for his top stable but he looked to enjoy the soft surface that day and this will be more of a speed test. Sage Green looks well handicapped off a mark of 113 given his form from the Spring but the worry has to be the stable form as Syd Hosie hasn't managed a winner in the last 6 months. Thistle Be The One finished 2nd to French Ship in January and he looks well weighted off that effort but he was very poor on his first run last year and was even worse on his most recent run so now has something to prove. Perhaps the percentage call is with Paul Nicholls' Byzantium. The ex-French trained gelding showed promise on his first few starts in the UK, albeit beaten at short odds, before his form fell apart in the winter. He properly got back on track in the summer however by bolting up at Warwick and Newton Abbott. The Warwick form has substance to it and he couldn't have won any easier the last day. A mark of 114 still looks fair and with form on a quick surface and now seemingly upwardly mobile, he could be the one to beat in this. 

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13:30, Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Chase

Viroflay 2/1, 2pts win

Only 4 go to post for this. I don't agree with Viroflay being able to run in this race given he's been hunter chasing for so long and has bundles of experience which is opponents lack. No Questions Asked looks a horse to follow this season after showing plenty of promise over hurdles last season but Ascot is not the easiest place to start of your chasing career. Lylian could be anything coming over from France and Don't Tell Su has always looked a chaser for all he will need to improve on his overall form. Viroflay should be able to get to the front here and use his experience to put the field's jumping to the test. 

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14:05, Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase

L'eau Du Sud 7/2, 2pts win

A classy renewal of the 2 mile handicap chase on the card. Boothill won this 2 years ago and is classy on his day. This is a tough test on his first start for 287 days though. Sans Bruit is likeable and will enjoy the ground but seems more of a Spring horse whilst is looking a bit high in the weights. Martator won this last year but is 7 pounds higher 12 months on and this is a much harder renewal. The stable has yet to start firing. It could just be that Dan Skelton's L'eau Du Sud is too good for them here. It will be a tough task to defy a mark of 155 but Tristran Durell's 3 pound claim is useful and he has a pretty good record when fresh. Connections older horses are running well on seasonal debuts so far this Autumn and given the prize money on offer, he's sure to be primed for this. 

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14:35, GL Events Novices' Hurdle

Soomaroy 10/11, 2pts win

The news got out pretty quickly that Soomaroy was a good one from the Nicky Henderson yard and he hasn't been missed in the market. Trustintimes, Military Avenue and Ice In The Veins bring some pretty stiff competition to the table but if the vibes are right then the Henderson horse will take some beating in a race connections won with Altior 10 years ago.

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15:10, Lavazza Handicap Hurdle

Ooh Betty 8/1, 2pts each-way (4 places)

A decent renewal and Joe Tizzard's Alexei looks likely to head the betting. A useful novice last year, the 5 year old ran a cracker on seasonal debut to finish 2nd in the Welsh Champion Hurdle 20 days ago. That form gives him a big chance here and he will go on this quick ground but the worry is that his form fell away a bit last season and this is a tough race. Washington is a credit to connections but is back up to a mark he's struggled off before. Indemnity is totally unexposed and must have a chance for all this is a big step up in grade whilst Fasol is entitled to come on for his seasonal debut at Chepstow 22 days ago and runs off a feather weight. He must have a chance but this race is often won by those towards the head of the weights and it could stay that way as Ben Clarke's Ooh Betty comes into this race with decent claims given her cracking course form. A winner on seasonal debut last year and although she's 10 pounds higher this time around, she improved throughout last season and finished 3rd off just a pound lower in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. She got within 3 lengths of Kargese over course and distance in January. The stable has only sent out 1 runner since 6th October and that was a winner, under today's jockey Toby Mcain-Mitchell. Decent chance. 

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15:45, Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Neon Moon 7/1, 1.5pts each-way (4 places)
Coastguard Station 40/1, 0.5pts each-way (4 places)

Considering the quick ground it was somewhat surprising to see a field of 13 for the main race of the day. Joe Tizzard's stable star The Changing Man must hold a huge chance here. Game as a pebble, the likeable 8 year old bolted up over course and distance in January and is only 2 pounds higher than when finishing 2nd at the Festival. He's a little bit hard to win with though as that Ascot victory last year was the only time he's managed to make it into the winner's circle since November 2022 so is a opposable on that stat. Henry's Friend is sure to run well but seems to need his seasonal debut whilst Marble Sands will be fit for this after a run on the flat 20 days ago, there is a slight worry about the ground. Blow Your Wad will enjoy the ground and is better going right handed but has stamina to prove over this far and is still on a bit of a retrieval mission. Perhaps Neon Moon could be the answer. David Pipe's 9 year old won on seasonal debut for the past 2 years and finished 3rd in this race last year off a 6 pound higher mark. There's no Chianti Classico this year and he's now 18 pounds better off with The Changing Man form their last encounter. He will have a chance and so too at bigger odds does Coastguard Station. Henry Oliver's consistent 9 year old is having his first run at the trip but has always threatened to stay this far and needs a sound surface. He's off a light weight and comes into this in career best form after winning well over 2 miles 5 furlongs at Market Rasen 35 days ago.