It's been a frustrating week but we move on in search of value as always.
Lingfield
16:12, Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Handicap
Thapa VC 4/1, 1pt win
This likeable 7 year old is now back down to a mark of 70 and drops in grade for his attempt here. 7 furlongs at Lingfield is just his bag and he ran well enough last time out to suggest he's ready to go in again.
Quiet week continues and I turn to Kempton again tomorrow.
19:40, Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap
Arlecchino's Rex 9/2, 1.5pts each-way (4 places)
I really like the chances of Mark Usher's runner here. The stable has had 2 winners and a second from 8 runners so far in April. You can forgive Arlecchino's Rex his latest run as nothing went right. Before that he was second in what I think was a decent race for the grade at this course in January. He's off a pound lower mark than that day and now has Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Drawn well in stall 3.
4th and 5th were the finishing positions of the selections at Kempton on Monday but both look like they shaped better than that and should be followed wherever they go next time. It's Pontefract tomorrow.
16:07, Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap
Lesley's Boy 6/1, 1pt each-way (3 places)
Richard Fahey has won 4 of the last 8 renewal's of this race and I fancy his 3 year old in this. Lesley's Boy looked a horse on the up last year and although he's top weight I think he's got plenty more to give this year and it's promising that his trainer runs him here.
Another big Spring Festival has come and gone, that's Aintree and the Grand National done for another year. It is Scottish Grand National this week and it looks set to be the key to the trainer's championship this year again with Willie Mullins now odds-on favourite to claim back to back titles after the events of the past few days. There isn't a lot to shout about on Monday but Kempton plays host to a decent little card that starts late in the afternoon.
18:30, Free Bet With Unibet's Betbuilder Rebound Handicap
Rogue Encore 7/1, 1pt each-way (4 places)
This is a decent handicap over the mile with 12 runners set to take their chance. I like Peter Chapple-Hyam's runner here, Rogue Encore. The 4 year old gelding was down the field in the Spring Mile at Doncaster 9 days ago but he looked in need of the run that day and I expect he'll strip much fitter here. He was upwardly mobile in the Autumn, winning twice at Newcastle before finishing 4th there again at the end of November over a trip probably too short for him now. He's still racing off a fair mark (84) and Luke Morris, who has won twice on him before, now takes back over in the saddle. The clincher for me is that he's well drawn in stall 3 and there's plenty of pace on here for him to track.
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19:30, Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap
Noble Victory 8/1, 1pt each-way (4 places)
This 3 year old sprint handicap looks the best race of the night and it has 12 runners contesting it this year which is a big improvement on last year's 3. I think James Tate's unexposed Noble Victory should go well here. He's mightily unexposed as this will be just his 4th career start and first in a handicap. He nearly won on debut at Southwell in January over 5 furlongs but stepped up on that effort to win at Chelmsford in February in a race that has worked out fantastically well as 4 of the placed horses have won since. I don't quite think he was at his best when 3rd of 4 runners at Newcastle in early March and I will forgive him that. Newcastle isn't for every horse and he may have been feeling the effects of a busy start to his life. He's been given a month's break since then and will be ridden for the first time by Billy Loughnane which must be a positive on an evening like this. He's drawn in stall 8 so I suspect he'll be ridden with more restraint than the last day and I think he's handicapped to go close.
I haven't managed to knock down the door at the Aintree meeting just yet but Favour And Fortune and Celtic Dino ran great races to both finish third on Thursday. Tomorrow is the big day and I reckon there's a decent priced winner to be found somewhere.
13:20, William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle
Timmy Tuesday 9/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)
I'm really keen to oppose the horses who ran in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last month as it looked like a gruelling race. Instead I like the chances of Gordon Elliott's improving 7 year old Timmy Tuesday. He is probably the most unexposed runner in here. He is still a novice and this will be his first run at the trip. The selection notably finished second to the classy Final Demand in a maiden hurdle earlier in the season but has won twice easily since in small affairs at Ayr and Down Royal. This trip could unlock key potential though as it's worth noting he was in front in a 3 mile point before running out late on back on his first start.
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13:55, Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle
No Bet
This is a really nice renewal but it's hard not to like the chances of Lulamba who should relish this trip and gets the weight for age allowance from all other runners. Still, he had a hard race in the Triumph last month and I couldn't take odds-on about him.
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14:30, William Hill Handicap Chase
Cruz Control 9/1, 1pt each-way (4 places)
This isn't as hard a race to win as it used to be and with likely favourite Myretown ruled out, it loses a lot of it's lustre. To that extent I think there's a decent chance that Cruz Control can win this for the second year in a row. It's fair to say that things haven't gone to plan for Tom Lacey's horse this season but it means he arrives here just 3 pounds above the mark he won off last year and the ground has really come right for him. I don't think this will take any more winning than last year's race and he should get a nice ride up front.
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15:05, Ivy Liverpool Hurdle
Strong Leader 11/2, 1.5pts each-way (3 places)
Like Cruz Control I think last year's winner of this race can go in again. Teahupoo can be taken on after being defeated fair and square at Cheltenham last month and it's worth noting that he usually needs time between his races to be seen to best effect and this ground will be lively enough for him. The ground can't be good enough for Olly Murphy's stable star Strong Leader though and I can't get the memory of how easily he won this race last year out of my mind. He's been disappointing since winning at Newbury in November but he's been running on the wrong track all winter and I'm sure this will have been the big plan all along.
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16:00, Randox Grand National Handicap Chase
Hewick 12/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Hyland 20/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
Beauport 25/1, 1pt each-way (6 places)
In year's gone by it wouldn't have been unknown for me to back 10 in the Grand National. But I had more of a love affair for the race back then. I first attended Aintree for the 2010 running of the Grand National and was spoilt as it was the year A P McCoy finally landed the big race. My first winner came the following year when Ballabriggs came home in front on what I remember to be a very hot Spring day. In those days the race was full of old favourites, and old rogues who I couldn't help but feel obliged to have a bet on for sentimental reasons. It was also a fiendish race to find the winner of. The handicap chase has changed markedly over the past 10 years however. A huge prize fund and easier fences has led to the big owners running more and more of their highly handicapped types and that means that the Irish pack out the field keeping out our old favourites and rogues. It's also become more of a simple test of class and stamina than jumping and temperament meaning a horse like Red Rum could never win today's race. It's worth noting that only 1 of the past 7 winners have been bigger than 14/1 so it's becoming an easier race to back the winner of. Anyway, my main fancy for the race this year is Hewick. As I said earlier you need to be a classy horse to win these days and being an ex-King George winner, Shark Hanlon's stable star has that in abundance. He also has stamina, as he showed when winning the Bet365 Gold Cup and Durham National back in the day. The ground has come right for him and I think he's got a huge chance. I also think that a couple of British trained horses could run well at nice prices. Hyland comes into this race as a novice but one who is in great form. He's looked a strong stayer this season and I think he's open to any amount of improvement now stepped up in trip. He too will enjoy the ground and I thought he ran a huge National Trial at Kempton in February on his last start. And finally Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this before and he runs last year's Midlands National winner and this year's Berkshire National winner Beauport. This 9 year old may be quite high in the weights these days because of those victories but he is a sound jumper who has bottomless stamina. If he gets into a rhythm he should go well.
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17:00, Rosconn Group Maghull Novices' Chase
No Bet
Whoever thought it was a good idea to run this race after the Grand National on the Saturday needs to take a good hard look at themselves. It's a stupid idea and it's a poor renewal again this year.
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17:35, Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race
Mossy Fen Road 5/1, 2pts win
This looks an open race but I was a huge fan of what Mossy Fen Road did at Wetherby in February and I would have backed Harry Derham's 5 year old had he run at Cheltenham last month. He's come here fresh instead and I think he's the bet in this field.
The opening day of Aintree was a frustrating one yesterday as we didn't manage to find a winner. We move on though and I really fancy one in the last here.
13:45, Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices' Chase
No Bet
This is a really good race and I like Handstands, especially after he accounted for the Arkle winner at Sandown last time out. My worry is that he's shown a aptitude for much softer ground than this. Dancing City won here last year but ran poorly last time out at Caldwell Potter comes here off the back of a huge race at Cheltenham last month. There's enough worries about the runners here for me to leave it alone.
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14:20, William Hill Handicap Hurdle
Favour And Fortune 16/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)
This is a wide open race with most of the fancied runners having run at the Festival last month but I'm keen to take a chance on one who didn't. Alan King's Favour And Fortune won last year's Scottish Champion Hurdle last April and arrives here off just a pound higher mark. He ran poorly last time out at Kelso but had previously finished a game 4th in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury in February. He's been given a break and this will be his first run on decent ground for a while, and I think that is key to this horse's chances. He's worth a play at the prices given that he finished 2nd in a Grade 1 on his only previous course visit.
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14:55, TrustATrader Top Novices' Hurdle
Tripoli Flyer 3/1, 2pts each-way (3 places)
Romeo Coolio sets a high standard here after finishing 3rd in the Supreme last month but he had a hard race that day and he's had a long season. Tripoli Flyer did not run that day and so comes here fresh since a cosy win in the Dovecote at Kempton in February. He'll love this trip and ground and I think he's got a massive chance here for the British.
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15:30, My Pension Expert Melling Chase
No Bet
This is a poor turnout for this race and I can't really see Jonbon losing unless he beats himself... again!
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16:05, Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Handicap Chase
Marble Sands 18/1, 0.5pts each-way (5 places)
Lounge Lizard 18/1, 0.5pts each-way (5 places)
This is as wide open a race as you can get and pretty much anything could win but I will take a chance on a couple of outsiders. Marble Sands ran a cracker off a pound higher mark than this to finish 2nd at Cheltenham on New Year's Day and has skipped Cheltenham to come here. He's a horse I've always liked. Lounge Lizard will enjoy this ground and is still feasibly handicapped off a mark of 135. He races off a nice low weight and has a likeable profile.
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16:40, Oddschecker Sefton Novices' Hurdle
No Bet
This is a below par but open renewal of the Sefton. Mister Meggit looked like a top prospect in the Autumn but hasn't been seen since and it's hard to know what to expect. The rest of the field are much of a muchness and nothing really appeals to me.
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17:15, Hallgarten And Novum Wines Handicap Hurdle
Celtic Dino 7/1, 2pts each-way (5 places)
I really like the chances of Sam Thomas's 6 year old novice hurdler here. He looked like a horse to follow in the Autumn when winning well at Wincanton and Ascot before finding the ground too hard when upped to Grade 1 company here on Boxing Day. He's been limited to just 1 run since when 3rd at Kempton in February but I don't think he was seen to best effect that day. He's back on a bigger track here and he will adore this quicker surface. Sam Thomas runs Lump Sum in here as well to help keep the weight down on his number 1 contender here and that's something I like to see. Huge chance.
It's scarcely believable that 23 days ago was the start of the Cheltenham Festival yet here we are. British Summer Time has broken down the door of Spring and the sun has come shining through it. For the next 3 days that sun will be beating down on the Merseyside grass at Aintree and what a week we have in store. We have the very best on show tomorrow and I can't wait for it!
13:45, EBC Group Manifesto Novices' Chase
Jango Baie 5/2, 2pts win
This is a seriously hot race to start the meeting with and I'm siding with the Arkle winner to come out on top again now sent back up in trip to a more favourable distance. Impare Et Passe won the Aintree Hurdle on this day last year but his jumping has been a worry lately and this is a stiff track where he won't be able to get away with not being fluent over his obstacles. There's also got to be the slight worry about the sounder surface as well. I like Gidleigh Park and think he's classy but I'm also not keen on him on this sort of ground and his lack of experience could count against him. The selection however, has plenty of experience and I don't think he actually had too hard a race in the Arkle last month. He did well to win that day and this extra trip should help him travel better. I think he's a sound bet at 5/2.
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14:20, Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle
Live Conti 7/1, 1pt win
Anyone who has read my blog will tell you how much of a great result Puturhandstogether was when he bolted up in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival last month. He looked like a graded horse that day and with Lulamba's absence in this race he's been well found int the market and is now a best priced 13/8 to take this. That's short enough for me given that Fred Winter winners have a woeful record at Aintree and he was plotted up for that race with this now being the after-thought. He was impressive enough that day to warrant being favourite but I'd rather take a chance on Dan Skelton's Live Conti at much bigger odds. He's only had one run in the UK since moving over from France (won on only start) and he never had to come out of second gear to bolt up at Wetherby. He's been trained for this race having missed Cheltenham so comes here fresher than most. He's got a big reputation and looked like a really nice type last time out. He's open to any amount of improvement.
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13:55, Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase
No Bet
This is a hell of a race but with so many concerns about every runner in the field, I feel this is just one to sit back and enjoy. I'd like to see Grey Dawning win as he could well be the best long distance chaser in Britain and having missed Cheltenham he's entitled to be favourite. He's failed to win in 3 starts at Aintree however, and he may well find his ground lively enough. The same could be said of Spillane's Tower however, and although he ran a huge race to finish a close second to Ryanair winner Fact To File back in November, he arrives here off a very flat effort in the King George. Ahoy Senor loves Aintree and will run well again I'm sure but he's failed to finish in his last 3 starts now and is unlikely to get a freebie in front. He'd be a popular winner though and I'd cheer him on if we was in front heading for home - he just needs his jumping to hold out.
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15:30, William Hill Aintree Hurdle
No Bet
The greatest hurdler I have ever seen is Constitution Hill and unfortunately he lost his unbeaten record when falling at the half way point in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 23 days ago. He's up against Lossiemouth here who many fancy will get closer to him today than she did at Kempton. That's down to this being over a half mile further than the Christmas Hurdle and this is more her sandpit than Nicky Henderson's great horse. But I'm a firm believer in class and Constitution Hill has that dripping out of every pore. Barring a fall, he wins.
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16:05, Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase
Presentandcounting 33/1, 1pt each-way (5 places)
This is one of the best renewals of the Foxhunters' that I can remember. Willitgoahead must have a huge chance after running so well at Cheltenham last month but this is just as quality a race as that so he's no certainty. My Drogo was a very classy novice back in the day and has been expertly handled to get back to a big day like this. He could easily route this lot but so could Lifetime Ambition who has had this as the aim for a long time by shrewd Irish connections and the drop in trip looks ideal. Famous Clermont won this well back in 2023 and looks to be as good as ever. The front end of the market have little to split them so I will take a punt on Presentandcounting at much bigger odds. He ran a decent race last time out when third behind a couple of today's rivals but that was over a much longer trip and he's been shaping recently as though he needs to run over shorter. He's a great jumper who will appreciate this nicer ground and it's really interesting that Irish jockey Dereck O'Connot has been given the ride. This horse enjoys getting into a rhythm up front and that has played out well for winners of this in the past.
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16:40, Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase
My Mate Mozzie 11/2, 1.5pts each-way (4 places)
I don't think this is a very good renewal and nothing looks obviously well handicapped so to that end I think today is going to be the day that My Mate Mozzie finally lands a big prize. He's been knocking on the door for a while now without success but he ran a great race in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and will have everything in his favour here.
