Cheltenham, December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14/12/2024)
Stage Star 10/1 each-way (4 places)
The December Gold Cup at Cheltenham in mid-December started off life as the Massey Ferguson (to which many will still call the race) in 1963 and is still one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. It has been run under many guises over the years and claimed by some titans of the sport such the all-time great Flyingbolt (1965), dual King-George hero Pendil (1973), the imperious Combs Ditch (1985), Lexus Chase winner/Gold Cup runner-up Exotic Dancer (2006) and in more recent times the King George and Ryanair hero Frodon (2016). It continues to attract popular horses as well as potential future stars and this year looks like being another fascinating contest.
There are currently 27 entered for the big race on Saturday and it's easy to rule a few out. Ginny's Destiny and Minella Drama run in the Peterborough Chase today instead and Marsh Wren has been ruled out by her trainer. Springwell Bay may take up his entry in the Novice's Chase on Friday and Genois, Issa'r Dairy and Kotmask will all be out of handicap so may be diverted elsewhere. That takes the field down to 20 and it's difficult to know if all of the Irish entries will hold their ground (James Du Berlais, Visionarian, Pinkerton and Seddon). Richmond Lake was due to run in the race he won last year at Aintree this weekend but with that meeting abandoned he could take up his entry here for all that he was very poor on his only course visit to date. So it's difficult to get really into this race but the ante-post market seems to have found Madara for Dan Skelton's yard after he ran such a fine race when fourth in the Paddy Power, running on late. He won a few fans that day but it still has to been seen if this 5 year old is up to winning such a competitive race as he'll need to race a lot more handily than last time if he's to come out on top. He doesn't make huge appeal at the prices. Neither really does last year's winner Fugitif due to the fact that he arrives here off a 1 pound lower mark than when victorious 12 months ago. It's worth noting that there were only 12 runners that day and the market leaders all either fell or ran below form that day. The race couldn't have worked out any better for him either with Il Ridoto setting such a furious pace and vulnerable up the hill. This looks a better race and he may not get away with being off the bridle a mile from home this time around. Il Ridoto himself should run his usual gallant race after his popular success last month but he's now up to a career high mark of 149 and history tells us he probably won't be up the shouldering that in such a big race. Ga Law is back at his favourite course and his handicap form over this trip reads 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. He's 8 pounds better off with Il Ridoto than last month and will find the likely softer ground much more to his liking. He should go closer this time but the handicapper is making life hard for him as he is also now off a career high mark of 156. At the prices from this far out I'm keen to side with last season's Paddy Power hero Stage Star. Sure he will have to shoulder 12 stone but Frodon defied top weight for the stable 8 years ago and less we forget that this 8 year old is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. He's actually now only 5 pounds higher than when victorious in the Paddy Power and it's hard to say he still wouldn't have won that with that amount of weight added to his back. He's been dropped 4 pounds by the handicapper over the past 12 months and the comeback run at Aintree in October wasn't bad at all considering the course doesn't suit as well as Cheltenham and the stable was struggling at the time. He has a fantastic record fresh and has been readied for this by the master trainer since that run 2 months ago. We shouldn't forget that he was sent off 11/10 favourite to defy a 4 pound higher mark over course and distance in January and given that there doesn't appear to be any handicap blots below him in the weights, he looks the value in the race at the current 10/1 on offer.
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