Friday, 6 December 2024

Sandown - Saturday 7th December 2024

 Fingers are crossed that racing at Sandown survives the 7.30am inspection due to high winds and we get to see 2 Grade 1 chases headlined by the Tingle Creek. Always a fantastic days racing this. I'll be in attendance and will run down the races. 

12:08, Betfair Exchange Claremont Novices' Hurdle

Juby Ball 9/2

This is only the second running of the opening 2 mile novices' hurdle and I can't help but feel it's not attracting the level of horse that Sandown were hoping for. There were only 3 runners last year and 6 this time but there doesn't look to be any future stars in the field albeit I'm sure they will all go on to win more races. Honky Tonk Highway looks set to go off a short priced favourite after running a gallant race in defeat at Warwick on hurdles debut 16 days ago. She was only downed by a potentially smart one of Nicky Henderson's that day and will be hard to beat. Epinephrine makes her first start in the UK having joined the Venetia Williams stable for £100,000 and it is hard to know what to expect but she shaped well on her only start in France. Hartington is respected but the race at Newbury which he won rather fell into his lap and his form probably isn't good enough for this. Juby Ball however, finished 2nd in a hot bumper at this course in February after impressing on debut at Ffos Las before that. He has been off since but is clearly thought highly of to make his hurdles debut in such a strong race. He looked like a horse to follow last year and with proven efficiency on soft ground, he'll be the one I go for against the favourite and may play him in an exacta with the favourite as well. 

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12:40, Betfair Supports Racing With Pride Mares' Handicap Hurdle

Good Luck Charm 8/1 (each-way 4 places)

This is always a competitive race, with 13 going to post this year. 7 of the last 10 winners have been rated 115 or above. Pretending did win this off 103 last year but it's worth noting that only 5 ran so perhaps it is wise to focus on those at the top of the handicap. Ring O Roses starts off life in the UK for Henrietta Knight but she wasn't exactly progressive when racing in Ireland and this is a stiff ask on stable debut. Dollar Collar quickly reverts to hurdles after a poor effort on chase debut last time out and isn't without a chance as she is pretty lightly raced. A mark of 119 isn't overly generous however. There are a few at the bottom of the weights who are progressing but they now find themselves of high marks against tougher opposition. The likely favourite is Larchmont Lass who won well at Wincanton last time and did win a Listed bumper at this course in 2023. There's a good chance she'll kick on now as she didn't convince with her consistency last season. I'll take a chance instead on Good Luck Charm from the Anthony Honeyball yard. She won on debut last season (race at Wincanton that Larchmont Lass won in November) off an 8 pound lower mark but it's fair to say she's shaped like she can go close off a mark this high as she finished 4th in the Lanzarote off a 2 pound higher mark than today and she had some classy geldings in front of her that day (Impose Toi just ahead). She also finished a game 4th in a 3 mile premier handicap at this course in February. She'll be ridden by 10 pound claimer Chad Bament here so she'll be receiving weight from most of the field and she looks the value in the race. I might play her in an exacta with Larchmont Lass as well. 

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13:15 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle

Authorized Art 14/1 (each-way 3 places)
Grozni 18/1 (each-way 3 places)

I'm not a big fan of the Pertempts races throughout the season, I find it difficult to work out who is plotting what with their horses and this is no different. It's 4/1 the field. There are questions to be asked about all of these. West To The Bridge is 11 rising 12 and finds winning difficult for all he is well handicapped on past form and this trip/ground combo is more to his liking that what he has been facing in recent times. Henri The Second has been nothing short of disappointing since he won a Grade 2 here 2 years ago and now finds himself on a retrieval mission. Dubrovnik Harry is still lightly raced for an 8 year old and has finished 3rd on both his runs at this course. He's handicapped fairly but still only has a sole win in a maiden hurdle to his name. Operation Manna won this race last year but now finds himself 5 pounds higher in the weights and Tom Lacey's stable isn't quite firing on all cylinders yet. So, I'll take a chance on the 2 biggest priced horses in the race. Authorized Art finished 4th in a Kerry National over fences off a mark of 151 in September 2023 and if he could find that sort of form here, a hurdles mark of 139 looks exploitable. He has the services of Freddie Mitchell claiming 5 pounds off his back here and ran an encouraging race on stable debut at Kempton in October over an inadequate 2 miles. He didn't enjoy the Grand Sefton challenge last time out. Grozni likewise has a chance based on his past Irish form for Charles Byrnes. He finished 2nd in a huge field handicap at the Dublin Racing festival in 2023 and has been chasing for most of his career since. This is his first run back over hurdles since joining James Owen and is probably overpriced in a puzzling race. 

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13:50, Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase

L'eau Du Sud 5/6

There are only 4 runners in this year's edition of the novice Grade 1 but it is a real fascinating affair with Gordon Elliott sending over 2 classy individuals. Soul Icon will most likely make the running but could be taken on early by Touch Me Not who has won a Grade 2 last time out by making all. Why would you change a winning formula. The form of that Grade 2 is suspect however and Down Memory Lane looks the classier of the Irish pair after a commanding victory on his first chase run at Navan 21 days ago from King of Kingsfield. He looks like he could be better over further in time however and with only 4 runners it is unlikely that this race will turn into a war of attrition. I was blown away with L'eau Du Sud in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham last month and I can see Harry Skelton making his move after the second last to do this lot for speed and reward favourite backers. 

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14:25, Betfair Plays Different Handicap Hurdle

Willmount 11/4
Spirit D'aunou 9/1

This is a good race albeit only 9 runners is somewhat disappointing. Namean Lion races here off a mark of 150 which puts a couple of rivals out of the handicap proper. It will be a monster effort to defy that mark on seasonal debut at Sandown on winter ground mind. Harry Skelton rides Knickerbockerglory for the first time since 2022 and this 8 year old goes well fresh. He's only 2 pounds above his highest winning mark but he often finds himself a sitting duck when running freely from the front and can he concede 2 pounds to Willmount? Nicky Hendersons runner hasn't been seen since pulling up in last year's Challow Hurdle but he was sent off favourite that day and looked very classy the time before. A mark of 130 surely underestimates him and the stable could have easily pitched him into a graded race but come here instead to try an exploit the handicap mark. At the prices I'll also have a play on last year's winner Spirit D'anou. He's only 4 pounds higher a year on and this is his ideal set of circumstances. 

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15:00, Betfair Tingle Creek Chase

Jonbon - Edwardstone exacta

Jonbon finds himself favourite again for this famous race a year on but there are 4 more opponents this time around, with raiders from across the Irish Sea to add into the mix. Still, he is the standout in this division at the moment and I don't really see anything in here which should be able to defeat him if he's on point. Quilixios is a new rival but his level of form doesn't look good enough to be seriously troubling the odds on favourite. JPR One is respected off the back of a classy performance in the Haldon Gold Cup. It's worth noting however, that he was a disappointing favourite in the Henry VIII on this day last year and the ground could be going against him again. Boothill ran a cracker in the Schloer last month but I expect Edwardstone to reverse placings with him back at this course and he could well be the one to chase Jonbon home again in the Tingle Creek. 

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15:35, Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Mr Vango 4/1
Certainly Red 8/1 (each-way 4 places)

This is an on par renewal of the London National and it looks set to be another slog. Montgommery has been well found in the market and could still be on the improve but I'll stick with Mr Vango to continue his progression. He won by a mile at Exeter last year before running admirably at the Cheltenham Festival. He was backed down to favouritism in the Scottish National at the end of the season before pulling up. He'll be more at home on softer ground here and connections have decided to come here for his seasonal debut which could be telling. Certainly Red isn't hiding anything from the handicapper but is record round Sandown is eye-catching and he should go well. 

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